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News
and comment by a journalist based in London
Why smart bombs don't work This first appeared in Out There News, an AOL news channel, 13 November 1998. Edward
Spiers,
Professor of Strategic Studies, University of Leeds:
Biological
weapons have a capability, if dispersed under optimal meteorological
conditions, of spreading over the same sort of area as a nuclear
weapon. They could probably cause the same number of casualties
– again under optimal dispersal conditions. One
thing that you have to bear in mind is that if you’re going after facilities
which have biological agents is that you don’t want to blow them up
in a way which disperses the stuff into the wide blue yonder.
It
would cause huge problems because there’s very little defence people
can put up against them other than physical protection wearing masks
and taking vaccinations in advance. But you’ve got to know what the
agent is and many of the countries around Iraq, of course, have no protection
at all. Would
hitting a biological site cause many Iraqi civilian deaths? Very
difficult to say. The US would probably try to avoid that. The
whole essence of the military operations during the Gulf War and thereafter
have been on precision strikes. They could make a precision strike
on a single building; but they want to do so in a way that there isn’t
a release of agents. If
one takes the Tomahawk attack on the Sudan recently, that building was
destroyed by a number of Tomahawks coming in. There doesn’t appear to
be a major leakage of chemicals from that plant. But there’s some risk.
Some of these agents persist on the ground for a long period of time.
Brits dropped anthrax on a Scottish island; it wasn’t decontaminated
for over 40 years. Really,
you have to find bombs that implode on their target. They employed some
of those bombs last time round; the trouble was they didn’t always know
where to drop them. For example, the famous Baghdad baby milk factory
was in fact a baby milk factory. It wasn’t a biological site as Colin
Powell claimed at the time. So
you really have to have pretty good intelligence if you’re going
to eliminate targets as small as that with any precision. home|
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